INTRODUCING: PREDICTION MARKET ELO
June 29, 2026
NTRODUCING: PREDICTION MARKET ELO
Some traders consistently win on Polymarket, bet after bet. We’ve created prediction market performance ratings (Elo) on Arkham Intel to help you find them. Here’s how it works:
The rating uses an Elo/MMR-style system that ranks traders based on prediction accuracy.
Every correct prediction that a trader makes will increase their Elo score relative to other traders. Correct predictions at lower odds will increase a traders Elo by more than correct predictions at higher odds.
Ratings do not take bet sizing into account, so smaller but more accurate traders will rate higher than larger bettors with a lower win-rate.
The highest Elo-ranked trader on Polymarket is “GardenerCx”, whose strategy revolves around trading crypto up/down 5 minute markets with incredible accuracy. His win rate is 64.3% over 2,644 bets, and he has an Elo of 2389.
On the other hand, the highest PnL Elo-ranked trader is “swisstony”, a prolific sports bettor with $11.4M in PnL.
Despite his high sizing and PnL, his trades are less consistently profitable, and his win rate is slightly lower at 52.9%. This makes his Elo 1514, which is still in the top 7% of traders on Polymarket.
Ratings are now live on Arkham’s prediction markets analytics page.